At 500 effective, I stacked Villain a few hands earlier.

He is slightly tilted and frustrated. The hand installed him in he limp called $40 with 9x when we had Queens  on a 99Q flop.

Few rotations later, 7 handed again $500 effective.

Two players limp to Hero $35 K☘️J♦️

Small blind same villain calls.

Pot $80 Flop J❤️7❤️3☘️

Villain checks, Hero $50, Villain calls 

Pot $180 Turn 2♠️ H $160 Villain calls 

Pot $500 Villain checks Hero checks 

Did I make a mistake?  about  50% of you said yes and  50% said No.

About Half of you think checking is fine the other half think an All in is the correct play.

Follow me on IG ThePokerProneur to partake in the hand quizzes. 

Let’s try and find an answer without running it through a solver but taking from the knowledge and information  we have. 

With this texture and action, my first thoughts are that it’s most likely villain has a draw that missed. 

Let’s take a closer look.

The hands we get value from that may take this line 

JT, J9 & J8 I think the villain has all suited and unsuited combos since he was loose and frustrated . He has 8 combos each of JT J9 & J8 

Total 24 total combos.

Hands we lose that may take this line are listed below.

All 8 combos of AJ ,half the combos (3) of QJ as villain will bet the river a % of the time & a half a combo each for 77 & 33  totaling 1 combo as he would of check raised flop or turn a % of the time  and or donk bet the river. 

I will also give him 1 combo of J7 being of the club variety for a back door flush draw that he got sticky with on the turn.

Total combos of value own 13.

6 combinations of KJ we chop with that may fold to river shove. 

Note, Hands we may triple barrel bluff against a more competent villain.  Against this villain particularly in this situation I would not bluff.

AK hearts 1 combo 

AT hearts 1 combo 

A3 hearts 1 combo 

KT hearts 1 combo 

T9 hearts  1 combo 

89 hearts 1 combo 

6 total combos 

The hands we triple barrel for value 

JJ 3 combos 

QQ 3 combos 

QJ 4 combos 

KK 6 combos 

AA 6 combos 

AJ  6 combos combos 

KJ  6 combos 75%  of the time.

27 combos 

We have a ton more value hands then bluffs in this spot.

After doing the work, I think we should be betting river 100% of the time when we have the K❤️ and the K☘️

A lot of draws villain has will consist of the K❤️ he can’t have these draws if we hold this card. It makes his range more weighted to a made hand. A small percentage of hands have Kx ☘️

When we don’t have the K ❤️ or K☘️ I think checking half the time is ok and betting all in the half the time 

How I would do this in game is bet the K♠️ ck the K♦️

After review I think I made a mistake and we should be shoving 75% of the time on this river.

Villain may not recognize we don’t have many bluffs here. 

Villain has a twice the amount of hands he can call us with then when we value own ourselves.

We need to be good a little over 50% of the time when called to make this the right play. Based on the combos I think without a question we are. 

When we factor in the pot it’s a clearer bet.

Pot was $500

Villain had $250

If bet $250 into $500  It’s as if he bet $250 into 500 and I was facing the bet. If this were the case I would need to be good 25% of the time. I think I would be and I would call on this run out.

Conclusion do the work away from the table and you will often find the answer that will help you as you progress as a player.

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