At 500 effective, I stacked Villain a few hands earlier.
He is slightly tilted and frustrated. The hand installed him in he limp called $40 with 9x when we had Queens on a 99Q flop.
Few rotations later, 7 handed again $500 effective.
Two players limp to Hero $35 K☘️J♦️
Small blind same villain calls.
Pot $80 Flop J❤️7❤️3☘️
Villain checks, Hero $50, Villain calls
Pot $180 Turn 2♠️ H $160 Villain calls
Pot $500 Villain checks Hero checks
Did I make a mistake? about 50% of you said yes and 50% said No.
About Half of you think checking is fine the other half think an All in is the correct play.
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Let’s try and find an answer without running it through a solver but taking from the knowledge and information we have.
With this texture and action, my first thoughts are that it’s most likely villain has a draw that missed.
Let’s take a closer look.
The hands we get value from that may take this line
JT, J9 & J8 I think the villain has all suited and unsuited combos since he was loose and frustrated . He has 8 combos each of JT J9 & J8
Total 24 total combos.
Hands we lose that may take this line are listed below.
All 8 combos of AJ ,half the combos (3) of QJ as villain will bet the river a % of the time & a half a combo each for 77 & 33 totaling 1 combo as he would of check raised flop or turn a % of the time and or donk bet the river.
I will also give him 1 combo of J7 being of the club variety for a back door flush draw that he got sticky with on the turn.
Total combos of value own 13.
6 combinations of KJ we chop with that may fold to river shove.
Note, Hands we may triple barrel bluff against a more competent villain. Against this villain particularly in this situation I would not bluff.
AK hearts 1 combo
AT hearts 1 combo
A3 hearts 1 combo
KT hearts 1 combo
T9 hearts 1 combo
89 hearts 1 combo
6 total combos
The hands we triple barrel for value
JJ 3 combos
QQ 3 combos
QJ 4 combos
KK 6 combos
AA 6 combos
AJ 6 combos combos
KJ 6 combos 75% of the time.
We have a ton more value hands then bluffs in this spot.
After doing the work, I think we should be betting river 100% of the time when we have the K❤️ and the K☘️
A lot of draws villain has will consist of the K❤️ he can’t have these draws if we hold this card. It makes his range more weighted to a made hand. A small percentage of hands have Kx ☘️
When we don’t have the K ❤️ or K☘️ I think checking half the time is ok and betting all in the half the time
How I would do this in game is bet the K♠️ ck the K♦️
After review I think I made a mistake and we should be shoving 75% of the time on this river.
Villain may not recognize we don’t have many bluffs here.
Villain has a twice the amount of hands he can call us with then when we value own ourselves.
We need to be good a little over 50% of the time when called to make this the right play. Based on the combos I think without a question we are.
When we factor in the pot it’s a clearer bet.
Pot was $500
Villain had $250
If bet $250 into $500 It’s as if he bet $250 into 500 and I was facing the bet. If this were the case I would need to be good 25% of the time. I think I would be and I would call on this run out.
Conclusion do the work away from the table and you will often find the answer that will help you as you progress as a player.